After yet another second-round loss for the Philadelphia 76ers, this time in the most embarrassing fashions, the franchise is about to embark on another pivotal off-season. It started with the predictable decision to part ways with Doc Rivers on Tuesday, but that was the easy move. The following moves for the Sixers will be much more complicated because they’ve backed themselves into a corner where their two choices ultimately boil down to either giving a guy who disappeared in games six and seven a lot of money or blowing it all up.
Firing Doc Rivers was long overdue – he should have been fired after the collapse against Atlanta two years ago. Unfortunately, it won’t solve all that ails a franchise that hasn’t been in the Eastern Conference Finals in 22 years and counting.
On Wednesday, we learned that Harden predictably plans on opting out of his player option for 2023-24 in favor of a long-term deal. Should the Sixers grant that wish?
James Harden and Joel Embiid have earned their reputations for coming up short in the biggest moments. After Sunday’s absolute no-show from them both in game 7, that status has only been cemented further. The moment was too big for them as they played skittish and unsure of themselves. Jayson Tatum meanwhile played like a man possessed. The Sixers have not had anyone capable of doing that since they let Jimmy Butler walk three years ago to appease Ben Simmons. Meanwhile, Elton Brand, the man in charge at the time, still somehow has a job within the organization.
Bringing Harden Is Risky Long Term
And that brings me back to James Harden. In a perfect world, the Sixers would have a running mate for Embiid capable of taking over a game seven like Tatum did. There’s almost no way for the Sixers to conceivably do that at this point and almost have to resign Harden, even if logic suggests that an aging Harden will only get worse in these big moments as he gets older and all the minutes and partying catches up to him.
No one could have watched how the playoffs unfolded and thought, “yeah, this is the guy that gets us over the hump.” He had two moments of utter brilliance mixed in with just as many, if not more, moments of pure incompetence. If Harden was just average in either games three or six, the Sixers win the series without it ever getting to seven games. He was awful in both contests.
If Harden was this bad at 34, how bad will he look two or three years from now in the playoffs? The short-term reward of bringing Harden back could be outweighed by the risk of the Sixers’ window with Embiid being completely shit by committing to Harden long-term.
Harden Walking Provides No Cap Relief
Because the Sixers are so far over the cap, though, they won’t have any options to replace him that they won’t have if he stays. Even if they find a willing trade partner for Tobias Harris’s contract – another gift from the somehow gainfully employed Brand, they won’t get any cap relief and won’t land any sort of killer to pair with Embiid for playoff runs.
So if you don’t bring back Harden, you’re left with either trying to run it back with a core of Embiid/Tyrese Maxey/Harris and some moves around the margins or an Embiid/Maxey duo paired with a few more role players they can probably get in a package for Harris. If the current group couldn’t get past the second round, is either of those going to? Probably not.
Morey worked some magic two years ago to get rid of Horford and Josh Richardson and ended up with Seth Curry and Danny Green. That was a better haul than anyone could have imagined heading into the off-season, so maybe he has some more magic up his sleeve now that Harris is on an expiring contract. Unfortunately, getting any sort of significant piece for Harris is still unlikely.
A Harden for Chris Paul Sign And Trade Doesn’t Move Needle
The Suns emerged as a potential landing spot for Harden, but Phoenix would have to complete a sign and trade to land Harden. The most obvious trade piece they’d have to offer is Chris Paul. On the surface, Paul, instead of nothing for Harden sounds better than just losing Harden, but in the long run, is it?
Paul does nothing to increase the Sixers’ title odds in 2023-24, and with the Sixers having one of their few future first-round picks in 2024. Wouldn’t a punt of the 2023-24 season be better than having another regular season star who struggles in the playoffs like Paul help guide the Sixers to an excellent regular season record with another early exit?
Landing Paul for Harden would be a stopgap that likely leads us back to exactly where we are now while devaluing the 2024 first-rounder the Sixers have.
So if they don’t bring back Harden, the options are essentially – stay in the same playoff purgatory that started The Process in the first place or blow it all up and try to start over.
None of these scenarios are likely to increase the Sixers’ chances of breaking through their second-round ceiling and advancing to a Finals. That’s the corner that the Sixers have backed themselves into.
Is it possible that a new voice with some new offensive concepts for an Embiid/Harden duo other than the pick and roll can squeeze a little more out of this core? Sure, it’s possible, but is it likely? And is a new coach going to be able to help either Embiid or Harden get over whatever it is that has prevented them from rising to the occasion in a game 7? Probably not.
Would the Sixers Even Consider Blowing it Up?
The scenarios involving blowing it all up and starting over aren’t fun, either. The Sixers don’t have a lot of future assets, thanks to the Al Horford (‘25 1st to OKC) and Harden (‘’27 first to BKN) trades. If they did take this thing down to the nails and shopped Embiid, they’d get a treasure trove of picks like Brooklyn got for Kevin Durant and Utah got for Rudy Gobert. It’s hard to imagine the Sixers even contemplating trading a guy who just won the MVP, though.
The firing of Doc Rivers on Tuesday suggests that the Sixers are still all in on Harden following reports that Harden was likely gone if Rivers returned, but that still requires Harden to decide to come back. After all the smoke regarding Harden and Hoston, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Harden returned to the Rockets – especially after the reaction to Harden’s game six and seven failures in Philly.
So here we are. Days after the latest Sixers playoff collapse, right back to where we were a decade ago and staring down the very real possibility of another decade of mediocrity because they’re now stuck between a rock and Harden place.
If this column feels a bit wisy-washy and all over the place, that’s because it is. The Sixers are stuck in an unenviable position right now with Harden and there might not be any good way out of it regardless of which option they choose.
